Third Step in the Microfinance Theory of Change: Manage the ...

The classic microfinance theory of change involves three steps the poor person must take to make this theory true:

1. Take a loan from (or save with) a microfinance institution (or similar entity)

2.?Invest the money in a viable business

3.?Manage the business to yield major return on the investment.

I closed the last post of Theme Three (# 22) with David Roodman?s observation that microenterprise (= IGA for this Theme) may be just ?one more resourceful survival strategy? (Due Diligence, p. 27) among the many the poor pursue. From the exploration of what we know about Step 1, it seems fair to grossly estimate that about 50 percent of the poor who have access to microfinance providers actually take Step 1. And of those, about 50 percent take Step 2?or very roughly, one quarter of the poor with access to microfinance are in a position to take Step 3. Now I turn to questions about how they do when they try to ?

Manage the business to yield major return on the investment

Why demand a major return on investment of the ?usefully large sum? of money in an income-generating activity (IGA)?

Think about it! This is not an investment to maintain the value of one?s money against inflation or for long-term growth of capital. The expectation is much higher?enough income, net of IGA expenses and principal and interest payments to the lender (or to self in the case of savings), to allow the family to have food or other necessities for survival. The poor can make a little go a long way, but a ?little? may fall critically short of ?enough.?

Referring to the potential of loans to the poor to meaningfully augment household income from microenterprise, Banerjee and Duflos in their book Poor Economics (p. 213) write:

?So many have managed to be entrepreneurs in the face of so much adversity, and have made so much out of so little. There are, however, two troubling shadows in this otherwise sunny picture. First, while many of the poor operate businesses, they mainly operate tiny businesses. And second, these tiny businesses are, for the most part, making very little money.?

In their Chapter 9 (?Reluctant Entrepreneurs?), Banerjee and Duflos go on to show that while marginal return on a dollar investment can be very high for a tiny business, the overall return is very low ? the business is not making much money. Moreover, the average poor ?entrepreneur? gets stuck on micro. Their graphical analysis predicts that marginal return will drop rapidly as the micro-business grows and then reaches a point beyond which it cannot profitably grow without infusion of far more capital and management skill than is typically available, even when served by microfinance providers. This explains why most microfinance clients do not grow their businesses and often prefer to have two or more tiny ones. Except in relatively unusual circumstances, it is financially irrational to try to grow to the level of small-to-medium enterprise.

This question more than any other comes from the beating heart of public support for microfinance. If the poor do not make enough additional income from investment of their loans or savings to enhance their survival prospects, much less prosper, then why bother with microfinance?

So I will do several posts about evidence relevant to this question. Here is an overall summary of what we seem to have learned from the recent round of randomized controlled trials that touch on this question.

Microcredit seems to have little early impact on poverty or welfare (health, education, empowerment) indicators (within 18 months of joining a program), except for those who already have business activities in which they can invest their loans. These borrowers experience business growth and, sometimes, increased household expenditure. Microsavings seem to have more measurable impact but again more on those who have businesses at the outset. Whether from credit or savings, the impacts on business development are found predominantly among those already engaged or predisposed to engage in business. Makes perfect sense.? But?what about their household income?

This summary doesn?t tell us much about the return on investment by those roughly 25 percent who do have businesses and invest their loans or savings in them.

In coming posts, I?ll go deeper to explore what other forms of evidence seem to tell us and try to compose a nuanced picture of what we know about the success of the poor in taking Step 3 in the classic microfinance theory of change.

?

Source: http://microfinanceandworldhunger.org/wordpress/2012/07/third-step-in-the-microfinance-theory-of-change-manage-the-business-for-major-roi/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=third-step-in-the-microfinance-theory-of-change-manage-the-business-for-major-roi

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White House moves to extradite prisoner from Iraq

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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/white-house-moves-extradite-prisoner-iraq-191417675.html

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?In the Studio,? KISSmetrics? Hiten Shah Simply Tells It Like It Is

"In the Studio" this week welcomes a guest who has started and built both bootstrapped and ventured-backed businesses, who has tirelessly helped and coached hundreds of founders and early-stage teams on everything from fundraising to marketing to customer acquisition (and more) all the while he builds his own business as a co-founder of a company many startups and web companies rely on for insights into their businesses.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/7qssRqSi7Y0/

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Attacks on Romney for offshore assets, taxes heat up

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa/GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's re-election team stepped up attacks on Mitt Romney for holding offshore assets and urged him to release more tax returns, pushing hard on an issue that could be a weak point for the Republican presidential candidate.

The Obama campaign and top Democrats took to the Internet and airwaves on Tuesday with accusations that Romney is being secretive about his wealth as they seek to cement an image of the Republican candidate as a multi-millionaire who is out of touch with ordinary Americans.

The intensity of the Democrats' criticism suggested they feel they have got hold of an issue that could knock points off Romney's opinion poll numbers, like they did by accusing him of firing blue-collar workers when he was an executive at Bain Capital private equity firm.

An ad from the Obama campaign urged Romney to release more tax returns to give details of money in foreign havens like the Cayman Islands and Bermuda.

"Why is Mitt Romney hiding the rest of his tax returns?" asked a new Obama ad, which had the sound of a ticking clock in the background. "How long can Romney keep information on his investments in overseas tax havens secret? And why did he do it in the first place?"

Republicans say the focus on Romney's personal wealth - estimated at up to $250 million - is an attempt to divert attention from Obama's failure to improve the struggling economy and high unemployment rates.

Obama's running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, joked in a speech to a Hispanic group about Romney's reluctance to release more than two years of tax returns.

"He wants you to show your papers, but he won't show us his," Biden said, referring to Romney's support for a tougher line against illegal immigration.

OUT OF TOUCH

"And this is a man who says President Barack Obama is out of touch. Out of touch with the needs of the American people. This coming from a man who until recently had a Swiss bank account and millions of dollars invested in the Grand Cayman Islands ... beyond scrutiny," Biden said.

Romney, who is one of the richest men ever to run for U.S. president, has released his 2010 tax returns and estimates for 2011 but has been reluctant to make public any more.

His taxes were an issue during the Republican primaries when it became known that he is paying an effective tax rate of around 15 percent, lower than that paid by most top wage earners. The issue resurfaced in recent days due to media articles about his investments abroad.

The former Massachusetts governor says the foreign holdings are handled by blind trusts which he does not control.

"I can assure you of this - I have followed the law, I have paid my taxes as due," Romney said on the Sean Hannity radio show.

"What he has done is one attack after another ... suggesting that I would engage in something that is illegal, that is criminal, that I would hide assets and not pay the taxes that were owed. It's amazing," Romney said.

Obama extended his lead over Romney to 6 percentage points in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday.

It was unclear how effective the attacks on Romney's personal wealth and offshore assets might be. But surveys have shown that a previous portrayal by Democrats of Romney as an out-of-touch rich man did hit his poll numbers.

Negative ads targeting him as a job killer during his time as an executive in the 1980s and 1990s lowered support for the Republican in swing states.

In Grand Junction, Colorado, Romney turned around earlier accusations by Obama that Bain Capital outsourced U.S. jobs to cheaper countries abroad.

"By putting money into energy companies - solar and wind energy companies that end up making their products outside the united states. If there's an outsourcer in chief, it's the president of the United States, not the guy who's running to replace him," Romney said.

OBAMA AND 'TAX FAIRNESS'

Obama pushed his message of "tax fairness" on a visit to the election battleground state of Iowa where he touted calls for middle-class tax relief and painted Republicans as the party that favors the rich.

A day after he proposed extending Bush-era tax cuts for families making less than $250,000 annually, Obama told a campaign rally that if Congress did not act, the average family of four would have to pay about $2,200 more in taxes next year.

In an effort to portray himself as able to understand ordinary Americans, Obama noted how he and his wife Michelle also worked hard to manage all the different bills during the early years of their marriage.

"We should make sure the taxes on the 98 percent of Americans don't go up and then we should let the tax cuts expire for folks like me, for the top 2 percent of Americans," Obama, his top shirt button undone and tie casually askew, told a cheering crowd of about 1,600 at a local community college.

"To give me another tax break, or to give Warren Buffett another tax break or to give Mitt Romney another tax break, that would cost ... about a trillion dollars. And we can't afford it," he said.

The Democratic president's emphasis over two days on tax relief gave him an opportunity to shift attention away from his handling of the economy after government data last week showed another month of weak job growth.

"People are worried about their own bank accounts, not Mitt Romney's bank accounts," said Tony Fratto, a Republican consultant and former deputy spokesman for President George W. Bush.

"These are silly diversions that the Obama campaign is trying to throw out there to avoid talking about the real issues that people are worried about which are jobs," he said.

Former Republican Party chair Haley Barbour said on CNN on Monday that if he were in Romney's shoes, he would release more than two years of tax returns.

But like other Republicans, Barbour said it should not be a campaign issue. "I don't think it amounts to diddly," he said.

In April, Romney estimated his tax liability at $3.2 million for last year, having released estimates in January indicating he expected his family's income for 2011 to be $20.9 million. That would put his tax rate at about 15.3 percent, far below the top U.S. tax rate on wages of 35 percent.

The Obamas paid an effective tax rate of 20.5 percent on income of $789,674 last year, the White House said. They earned half their income from his presidential salary of $395,000 and the rest from book sales.

(Writing by Debbie Charles; editing by Alistair Bell and Mohammad Zargham)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/obama-takes-tax-fight-election-battleground-iowa-001302616.html

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Trappings of wealth hid Tetra Pak heirs' private pain

LONDON (Reuters) - A millionaire philanthropist, she mixed with European royalty and counted Britain's Prince Charles among her acquaintances.

But her American youth had been marred by drug abuse and when, as a middle-aged mother of four, she was caught smuggling crack cocaine in her handbag into an embassy function, it was clear Eva Rausing was leading a double life.

That life ended in tragedy when she was found dead, aged 48, in her London mansion on Monday, after her husband was arrested for drug offences. He may have lived with her body for days.

The six-storey, white-stucco townhouse on Cadogan Place, one of the city's most desirable addresses, was cordoned off with blue and white tape on Wednesday as detectives came and went, watched by journalists. "Police Line," it read. "Do Not Cross"

It was an unusual scene for a well-tended garden square in exclusive Belgravia, and one that symbolized the fracture at the heart of Eva Rausing's privileged life.

She and her husband, Hans Kristian Rausing, 49, an heir to the Tetra Pak packaging fortune, enjoyed a life of leisure and luxury open only to the very, very rich.

Hans Kristian's Swedish grandfather Ruben invented the now ubiquitous foil-lined drinks carton after his wife complained about heavy glass milk bottles. Ruben's sons, Hans and Gad, turned their father's firm into a global empire worth billions.

Hans Rausing took his wife, two daughters and only son to England three decades ago to avoid high Swedish inheritance tax and, at 86, is said by Forbes to be the 88th richest person on the planet with assets estimated at $10 billion.

But for all their wealth, Hans Kristian and his American wife, who first met at a U.S. drugs rehab clinic in the early 1990s, could not shake off their problems with addiction.

PRINCE CHARLES "SADDENED"

Hans Kristian was arrested on Monday on suspicion of drugs possession after driving his car erratically. When police later searched the couple's house they found Eva's body in a bedroom. Hans Kristian is under arrest and receiving medical treatment.

British media, apparently citing police sources, said his wife may have lain dead in the house for a week or more. Police officially neither confirmed nor denied that the 49-year-old man they say they are holding is Hans Kristian Rausing.

The couple have four children, all under 18.

Photographs of the Rausings arm in arm and smiling at society parties, and one of a laughing Eva in a bright pink dress and sunglasses with her blond hair tousled, appeared in the British newspapers after her death was announced.

In a poignant juxtaposition, a more recent snapshot showed a gaunt and frowning Eva, while another showed her husband hunched forward and scruffily dressed. Both look older than their age.

Eva Rausing's death was met with an outpouring of emotion from charities to which she had donated millions of pounds over the years, including many involved in the fight against drugs.

"I was absolutely devastated and shocked," said Nick Barton, chief executive of Action on Addiction, who knew her.

He described her as engaging and conscientious in her work as a trustee of the charity, whose patron is the Duchess of Cambridge, wife of second in line to the throne, Prince William. Barton said he had never noticed signs of Rausing's own problem with addiction, but said that was not surprising.

"I think sometimes, some people who suffer from the condition get tarred with a particular brush and we forget that they are human beings with talents and intelligence and generosity, much like other people but who just suffer from a particular condition," he said.

The Rausings' philanthropy had led them into the most rarefied of social circles. They had donated to one of Prince Charles's charities and were known to the heir to the throne, who said he was "saddened" by the news.

"WRONG TURN IN MY LIFE"

It was not, however, the first time the Rausings had come to the attention of British police, and newspapers, over drugs.

Four years ago, Eva Rausing was stopped on her way into a reception at the heavily protected U.S. Embassy. In her bag, along with heroin and a banned stimulant, was crack cocaine, the "ghetto drug" normally associated with the poorest of addicts.

More drugs, including cocaine, were found in her car and at the Cadogan Place house. Charges were dropped and she issued a contrite statement promising to seek help and saying "I consider myself to have taken a wrong turn in the course of my life."

Her husband could probably have said the same, according to Peter Andersson, a Swedish journalist and co-author of "Tetra - The History of the Rausing Dynasty".

He told Reuters that Hans Kristian and his two sisters grew up in Sweden without extravagances as their father wanted to ground them in strong values unadulterated by extreme wealth.

The siblings did not wish to spend their lives working for the family company so Hans sold his share of it to his brother in the 1990s and Hans Kristian has never been involved.

"He has never had a job in his life," said Andersson, adding that the young man had studied for a year but never graduated.

"Instead, he went off to India to find himself. He came back from there seriously ravaged by drugs. We are talking 1986 or 1987. What he did in India is wrapped in mystery, but he came back as a serious drug addict."

It was after that Indian journey that Hans Kristian went into rehab and met Eva, daughter of American businessman Tom Kemeny. He and his wife Nancy Kemeny described her in a statement on her death as "a devoted wife for 20 years and mother of four much-loved and wonderful children.

"She bravely fought her health issues for many years."

Those battles she once described herself as falling into a "hole": a posting on the social networking site Myspace, apparently written by Eva Rausing in the year or two before her run-in with the U.S. embassy security, reads:

"I fell back into the same hole as before and have been there for nearly 7 years.

"I once read that I would have 7 bad years," she said, before ending the post on a note of hope that turned out to be misplaced. "I'm hoping for 7 good years, starting 2007."

(Additional reporting by Niklas Pollard in Stockholm; Writing by Estelle Shirbon; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/trappings-wealth-hid-tetra-pak-heirs-private-pain-174500143.html

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?Seven Minutes of Terror? Video Grabs Online Audience for NASA

[unable to retrieve full-text content]A dramatic video previewing a rover?s journey to Mars has succeeded in an area where NASA has a mixed record: using social media.

Source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=c6617ea12ee934e71f158ec0e716c040

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Wis. Supreme Court to rule in factory farm case

FILE - In this Sept. 21, 2011, file photo Mike Larson rubs the nose of one of his 2,900 dairy cows at Larson Acres Inc. in the Town of Magnolia, Wis. Wisconsin?s Supreme Court is set to rule Wednesday, July 11, 2012, in a closely watched case pits Larson Acres Inc. against a small town that blames its water-pollution problems on manure generated by Larson?s 2,900 cows. The case is the first to test a 2004 state law governing the expansion of livestock farm operations. (AP Photo/Dinesh Ramde, File)

FILE - In this Sept. 21, 2011, file photo Mike Larson rubs the nose of one of his 2,900 dairy cows at Larson Acres Inc. in the Town of Magnolia, Wis. Wisconsin?s Supreme Court is set to rule Wednesday, July 11, 2012, in a closely watched case pits Larson Acres Inc. against a small town that blames its water-pollution problems on manure generated by Larson?s 2,900 cows. The case is the first to test a 2004 state law governing the expansion of livestock farm operations. (AP Photo/Dinesh Ramde, File)

FILE - In this Sept. 21, 2011, file photo shows three Holsteins cows at Larson Acres Inc. in the Town of Magnolia, Wis. Wisconsin?s Supreme Court is set to rule Wednesday, July 11, 2012, in a closely watched case pits Larson Acres Inc. against a small town that blames its water-pollution problems on manure generated by Larson?s 2,900 cows. The case is the first to test a 2004 state law governing the expansion of livestock farm operations. (AP Photo/Dinesh Ramde, File)

MILWAUKEE (AP) ? The Wisconsin Supreme Court is scheduled to rule Wednesday in a case in which a small town with three times as many cows as people is seeking greater authority to protect its water supply.

Communities throughout the rural Midwest have been keeping an eye on the lawsuit as they struggle to deal with the expansion of so-called factory farms. States throughout the farm belt have seen big farms get bigger as the agriculture industry continues to consolidate.

The Wisconsin lawsuit was filed by Magnolia, a town of 1,000 residents seeking to force a big livestock farm to meet tougher water quality standards than the state requires. Similar cases have been filed in six other Midwestern states, but this is believed to be the first to reach a state supreme court.

The lawsuit revolves around a 2004 state law establishing standards that local governments must follow when they grant permits for new and expanding livestock operations. The intent was to make farm regulations consistent across the state.

Larson Acres Inc. applied for a permit in 2006 to expand its operation in Magnolia, which is about 30 miles south of the state capital of Madison. At the time, the farm had 1,000 cows. It now has 2,900.

The town's experts tested water near the farm and found elevated nitrate levels, which they considered evidence of pollution from manure produced by the cows. So the town granted Larson Acre's permit to expand, but with additional conditions. For example, the farm had to allow the town to conduct monthly water quality tests on its land, and it had to follow certain crop-rotation strategies to reduce nitrate buildup.

Farm officials appealed to a board run by the state's agriculture department, arguing the town was exceeding its authority. Larson Acres claims the 2004 law prevents the town from imposing conditions that aren't required by the state.

The case pingponged through the courts for five years, and in the most recent ruling, an appeals court backed the farm. The town then appealed to the state Supreme Court.

At a hearing in September, Larson Acres attorney Eric McLeod told the justices that a town could introduce its own water quality regulations, just not as part of the permit-granting process. For example, Magnolia could monitor drinking water for nitrates and then sue the farm if pollution levels rose above certain limits, he said.

But Dela Ends, an organic farmer who lives a few miles from Larson Acres, called that logic ridiculous. She said it makes more sense to impose regulations from the beginning, than to wait for a water supply to be polluted and then seek remedies.

Similar cases have been filed in Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and Oklahoma. Two juries in Missouri have handed out multimillion-dollar awards to homeowners who complained of intolerable odors from so-called factory farms.

___

Dinesh Ramde can be reached at dramde(at)ap.org.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/386c25518f464186bf7a2ac026580ce7/Article_2012-07-11-Food%20and%20Farm-Big%20Farm%20Fight/id-f620b414fb0d448d9db450abc3c95f34

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Farmer says drought turns cattle ranch into 'desert'

NBC's Janet Shamlian reports from Arkansas, where severe drought has turned pasture into "desert," threatening the future of the cattle ranching industry.

By NBC News' Janet Shamlian and msnbc.com's Miguel Llanos

ATKINS, Ark. ? Drought now covers more than half of the lower 48 states but few have it as rough as Arkansas, where the entire state is listed as suffering from lower than average precipitation.

"It's just devastating," cattle rancher Karen Haralson told NBC News.?Having never seen her land this barren, she compares her ranch to "a desert."

---

Haralson has had to sell 100 of her 250 cows and ranchers across drought-hit areas are doing the same -- a trend that could raise beef prices next year, when fewer cows will be around to sell.

Forecasters say four to six inches of rain are needed to end the drought in Arkansas. Some rain is likely over the next few days, but there's nothing that significant on the horizon.

Indeed, drought conditions have only expanded and intensified in recent weeks, according to the weekly Drought Monitor compiled by the National Weather Service.

The service's Seasonal Drought Outlook for July-September offered little reason for hope. Arkansas was among the states were drought conditions were expected to persist.

For Haralson and other ranchers there's a real possibility of going bust.

"If no significant rain comes," she said, "I'll have to go out of business."

More content from msnbc.com and NBC News:

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Source: http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/10/12661653-drought-turns-arkansas-ranch-into-desert-forcing-sale-of-cattle?lite

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Carmakers report strong June sales, easing worries

FILE- In this Sunday, June 24, 2012, file photo a new Dodge RAM 1500 pickup truck is for sale at an auto dealership in Springfield, Ill. Chrysler reported Tuesday, July 3, 2012, that U.S. sales rose 20 percent, its best June in five years, thanks to demand across its lineup (AP Photo/Seth Perlman, File)

FILE- In this Sunday, June 24, 2012, file photo a new Dodge RAM 1500 pickup truck is for sale at an auto dealership in Springfield, Ill. Chrysler reported Tuesday, July 3, 2012, that U.S. sales rose 20 percent, its best June in five years, thanks to demand across its lineup (AP Photo/Seth Perlman, File)

FILE- In this Sunday, June 24, 2012, file photo Dodge cars are for sale at an auto dealership in Springfield, Ill. Chrysler reported Tuesday, July 3, 2012, that U.S. sales rose 20 percent, its best June in five years, thanks to demand across its lineup (AP Photo/Seth Perlman, File)

FILE- In this Sunday, June 24, 2012, file photo a new Dodge Challenger is for sale at an auto dealership in Springfield, Ill. Chrysler reported Tuesday, July 3, 2012, that U.S. sales rose 20 percent, its best June in five years, thanks to demand across its lineup (AP Photo/Seth Perlman, File)

FILE- In this Sunday, June 24, 2012, file photo the Dodge logo is seen on a Dodge Charger for at an auto dealership in Springfield, Ill. Chrysler reported Tuesday, July 3, 2012, that U.S. sales rose 20 percent, its best June in five years, thanks to demand across its lineup (AP Photo/Seth Perlman, File)

DETROIT (AP) ? From mini cars to monster pickups, sales of vehicles charged higher in June and eased concerns that Americans would be turned off by slower hiring and other scary headlines.

Automakers reported big gains over June of last year. Chrysler posted its best June in five years. Sales surged at Volkswagen, which is on track for its best year in the U.S. since 1973.

The results allayed fears that growth would stall after a strong start to 2012. Earlier this spring, sales were on track to reach 14.5 million this year, boosted by mild weather and the post-earthquake return of Japanese inventories. But the pace dropped to 13.8 million in May, as the stock market plunged and hiring slowed. In June, there was more bad news about jobs growth, and consumer confidence fell for the fourth straight month.

But buyers didn't go away. Falling gas prices, cheaper loans and new models like the Ford Escape and Dodge Dart drew them out. A revived housing market lifted sales of pickups.

By early Tuesday, The Detroit Three all said they expected the sales rate to top 14 million.

"Despite a rising level of uncertainty with the economic recovery, consumers remain resilient in their willingness to purchase new vehicles," said Jeff Schuster, LMC's senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive. Shuster is still expecting 2012 sales of 14.5 million.

For Chrysler, sales of the tiny Fiat 500 and Chrysler 300 large sedan more than doubled from a year earlier. General Motors' sales rose 16 percent, helped by strong demand for the Chevy Malibu and Volt electric car.

Pickup truck sales grew stronger as home building perked up. Chrysler's Ram pickup sales rose 12 percent and sales of the Ford F-Series ? which has long been the country's best-selling vehicle ? rose 11 percent.

Ford's overall sales rose 7 percent. The Escape small SUV posted its best month ever ? rising 28 percent ? after a new version of the popular vehicle arrived at dealerships. Ford said 40 percent of Escapes sold were new models, while the rest were heavily discounted older versions. Sales of the Ford Explorer SUV were also up 35 percent.

Shares of GM and Ford, which investors have beaten down lately over losses in Europe, rose Tuesday. Ford's stock climbed 3.3 percent to $9.71, while GM's stock jumped 6.5 percent to $20.84.

Toyota Motor Corp. said its sales were up 60 percent for the month, but that wasn't surprising. Last year, Toyota and Honda had little inventory at U.S. dealerships because of the earthquake in Japan.

Japanese automakers are taking back sales that its rivals gained last year. The Chevrolet Cruze, for example, was the top-selling car in the country last June, but its sales were down 24 percent last month.

There continues to be a lot of demand from buyers who bought cars in the middle of the last decade and need to replace them. Annual sales hit a high of 17 million in 2005, and those cars are now seven years old.

Low interest rates and better credit availability are also luring buyers. The average interest rate on a 60-month new-car loan is now 4.5 percent, down from 6.98 percent two years ago, according to Bankrate.com.

"The affordability of cars is probably at an all-time high," Chrysler Group sales chief Reid Bigland said last week.

Even if sales come in at 13.8 million for the year, they would still be stronger than the 12.8 million in 2011. And they'd be much stronger than the 30-year low of 10.4 million during the recession in 2009.

Other automakers reporting Tuesday:

? Nissan Motor Co. said its sales were up 28 percent. Nissan's Infiniti luxury brand was up 66 percent thanks to the new Infiniti JX crossover.

? Volkswagen's sales rose 34 percent on strong demand for two recently redesigned cars: the Beetle and the Passat. Volkswagen is on track to have its best year in the U.S. since 1973 thanks to a cheaper, revamped lineup.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/f70471f764144b2fab526d39972d37b3/Article_2012-07-03-Auto%20Sales/id-c00f6178a4fa4e7f82ef0903dbaacba9

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Higgs excitement at fever pitch

3 July 2012 Last updated at 15:30 ET By Paul Rincon Science editor, BBC News website, Geneva

Professor Jim Al-Khalili explains what the Higgs boson is and why its discovery is so important

Scientists at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are expected to reveal on Wednesday the strongest evidence yet for the Higgs particle.

Anticipation is high and rumours have been rife about the announcement.

The Higgs boson would help explain why particles have mass, and fills a glaring hole in the current best theory to describe how the Universe works.

The strength of the LHC's signal is understood to be just short of the benchmark for claiming a "discovery".

But it will show that researchers are now tantalisingly close to confirming the Higgs' existence and bringing to an end the decades-long quest for the most coveted prize in physics.

The $10bn LHC is the most powerful particle accelerator ever built: it smashes two beams of protons together at close to the speed of light with the aim of revealing new phenomena in the wreckage of the collisions.

Massive problem

But why has so much time and effort been invested in detecting the boson?

"The Higgs boson gives other particles mass, which sounds simple," Tara Shears, a particle physicist at Liverpool University, told BBC News.

"But if particles didn't have mass, you wouldn't have stars, you wouldn't have galaxies, you wouldn't even have atoms. The Universe would be entirely different."

Mass is a measure of how much stuff an object - such as a particle or molecule - contains. If it were not for mass, all of the fundamental particles that make up atoms would whiz around at light-speed and the Universe as we know it would never have clumped into matter.

According to the theory, all of space is filled by a field - known as the Higgs field, which is mediated by particles known as Higgs bosons.

Other particles gain mass when they interact with the field, much as a person feels resistance from the water - drag - as they wade through a swimming pool.

The boson is the last missing particle in the Standard Model, the most widely accepted theory of how the cosmos works. But the Higgs remains a theoretical construct that has never been observed in a particle accelerator.

Four of the six theoretical physicists credited with coming up with the Higgs mechanism in the 1960s - including Prof Peter Higgs, after whom it is named - have been invited to Cern in Geneva for the presentations, fuelling anticipation of a major announcement.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the signal detected at a mass of 125 gigaelectronvolts (GeV), which was announced in December, has since strengthened.

"We now have more than double the data we had last year," said Cern's director for research and computing, Sergio Bertolucci.

"That should be enough to see whether the trends we were seeing in the 2011 data are still there, or whether they've gone away. It's a very exciting time."

Momentous time

Discovering particles is a numbers game, and scientists analyse many events that could be representative of a Higgs boson being produced in the LHC.

Continue reading the main story

Statistics of a 'discovery'

• Particle physics has an accepted definition for a discovery: a "five-sigma" (or five standard-deviation) level of certainty
• The number of sigmas measures how unlikely it is to get a certain experimental result as a matter of chance rather than due to a real effect
• Similarly, tossing a coin and getting a number of heads in a row may just be chance, rather than a sign of a "loaded" coin
• A "three-sigma" level represents about the same likelihood as tossing eight heads in a row
• Five sigma, on the other hand, would correspond to tossing more than 20 in a row
• Independent confirmation by other experiments turns five-sigma findings into accepted discoveries

The hints of the Higgs revealed in 2011 had a statistical certainty of just two sigma.

Three sigma represents about one in 700 likelihood that a "bump" in the data is down to some statistical fluctuation, in the absence of a Higgs. But the benchmark for a discovery is five sigma, denoting a one-in-3.5 million likelihood that a result is down to such a fluctuation.

Rumours suggest the certainty level has now crept beyond four sigma. This might not be enough to announce that scientists have found the elusive particle. But it would suggest the LHC's scientists are within touching distance, and several physicists privately say that such a signal is now unlikely to go away.

Also, the idea that some systemic error could affect all the experiments that see hints of the Higgs - including those at the LHC and the US Tevatron machine (which search for the particle in different ways) - seems just as improbable.

But if and when a new particle is discovered, it will not be clear straight away that it is the Higgs. Physicists will need to characterise its properties in order to confirm whether it is the version of the Higgs predicted by the Standard Model, a "non-conformist" Higgs that hints at new laws of physics, or something else entirely.

This will involve years of detailed and difficult work, said Dr Tony Weidberg, a University of Oxford physicist and member of one of the LHC's experimental teams, Atlas.

He told BBC News that even at a certainty level of five sigma, "you're very far from proving it's a Higgs particle at all, let alone a Standard Model Higgs".

Dr Shears explained that particle physics had seen nothing like this present phase of exploration "in 40 years".

Compared with previous particle accelerators, she said, "the LHC does have that power, that [large] amount of data generated, that precision".

"Everything is coming together to achieve this moment."

Paul.Rincon-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk and follow me on Twitter

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18693744#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa

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Seagate Backup Plus

In a world teeming with portable hard drive choices, Seagate's GoFlex line is noteworthy for its versatility and sprightly performance. As successor to the venerable GoFlex line, the newly-minted Backup Plus line represents Seagate's next wave of drives. But not all successors are successes, and the new Backup Plus (1TB) ($139.99 direct) has some big shoes to fill. How does it fare? As it turns out, quite well. With brisk performance, a smart user interface that uniquely incorporates social networking, and its versatile USM (Universal Storage Module) adapter, the Backup Plus is a fully realized product that ultimately outshines the GoFlex line and, accordingly, is the rightful heir of the Editors' Choice for portable hard drives, previously held by the Seagate GoFlex Turbo (750GB) ($169.99 list, 4.5 stars).

Design and Features
Measuring 0.5 by 3 by 4.75 inches (HWD) with the USM (a proprietary interface) adapter (and 0.5 by 3 by 4.4 inches without), the Backup Plus's compact chassis is complemented by its tasteful, low-key aesthetic. While our test unit was black, it also comes in silver, blue, and red. Constructed entirely out of plastic, its primary visual flourish is the brushed faux-metallic finish on the lid, with the Seagate logo on its lower right side. While I prefer the sturdiness of a metallic drive along the lines of, say, the Western Digital My Passport Studio (1TB) ($179.99 list, 4 stars), the Backup Plus is nonetheless a handsome drive that, at either 5.4 or 5.9 ounces (depending on whether the USM adapter is attached), can easily slip into a laptop bag without adding any noticeable heft.

The real draw is the USM adapter, which securely fastens to the rear of the drive in the same manner as the GoFlex line. As was the case with the GoFlex Turbo, the USM adapters are available for USB 3.0 (tested), FireWire, and Thunderbolt. While some may find fault with having to shell out the extra cash for additional adapters, it's nonetheless a cheaper option than purchasing a new drive altogether, not to mention the added convenience of using the same drive rather than transferring your data over another for the sake of employing a different connection method.

Once you plug the drive into a PC, you see a revamped version of Seagate's Dashboard program. The new Dashboard was clearly designed with simplicity in mind, as its clean interface presents three options: Protect, Share, and Save. The Protect category allows users perform a back-up manually or automatically, as well as create customized back-up plans. The Dashboard's true gem lies in the Save category, where files uploaded to a Facebook or Flickr account are either manually or automatically stored in a folder within the Backup Plus. Sure enough, after posting some test snapshots to my Facebook wall from my smartphone, they showed up in my Backup Plus. It's an innovative and simple method to store all your pictures or videos on a single location. The Dashboard's Share feature is somewhat less impressive, as it simply allows you to upload files from your Backup Plus directly to your Facebook account. While I typically appreciate the notion of skipping the Facebook interface to upload images, this function is not nearly as impressive as the Share feature.

The Backup Plus comes formatted for NTFS but can be reformatted for Macs. The only shortcoming in this regard is the "Protect" feature of the Dashboard, as it's not Mac-compatible. This isn't necessarily a fatal flaw since Mac users can perform the same task via Time Machine. Mac users can still utilize the rest of the Backup Plus's abundant set of features. In comparison, the Clickfree C6 Portable (1TB) ($150 street, 4 stars), is not compatible with Macs.

Performance
Although the drive we received from Seagate came equipped with USB 3.0, Seagate's USM adapters come in three flavors?FireWire, Thunderbolt, and USB 3.0. Using USB 3.0 (via the USM adapter's Micro B Port), the Backup Plus outpaced every portable drive in its class. It copied our 1.22GB test folder in a blazing 15 seconds, sprinting ahead of the Clickfree C6 (17 seconds) as well as the GoFlex Turbo (750GB) (18 seconds). Although a difference of a few seconds may initially seem negligible, the distinction becomes more pronounced when multiple large files are transferred. The Backup Plus's USB 3.0 speeds resoundingly trumped the WD My Passport Studio (1TB) using FireWire (31 seconds). Although USB 2.0 predictably yielded slower speeds for the Backup Plus (40 seconds), its USB 2.0 speed nonetheless surpassed that of the WD My Passport Studio (44 seconds) and the Clickfree C6 (41 seconds).

In the PCMark05 test, the Backup Plus yielded remarkable scores of 6,463 (via USB 3.0) and 3,125 (via USB 2.0), handily edging out the GoFlex Turbo's USB 3.0 score (6,025). The Backup Plus likewise yielded excellent results in the PCMark7 test, finishing with 1,449 (via USB 3.0) and 1,244 (via USB 2.0), easily edging out the Clickfree C6 Portable's scores of 1,406 (via USB 3.0) and 1,232 (via USB 2.0). The GoFlex Turbo's PCMark7 score of 1,498 with USB 3.0 was the lone instance in which the Backup Plus was outpaced, and since it was by a scant 49 points, it amounts to little more than a light drizzle on the Backup Plus's otherwise triumphant parade.

While the Seagate Backup Plus bears the imprimatur of the GoFlex line, its numerous attributes prevent it from standing in the lengthy shadow cast by its formidable GoFlex forebears. With its better user interface, faster performance, and innovative incorporation of social networking, the Backup Plus manages to outshine its predecessors, and sets the standard for future drives in the process, earning our Editors' Choice for portable hard drives.

COMPARISON TABLE
Compare the Seagate Backup Plus with several other portable hard drives side by side.

More portable hard drive reviews:
??? Seagate Backup Plus
??? Western Digital My Book Studio Edition II 6TB
??? G-Technology G-Connect (500GB)
??? Western Digital My Passport Studio (2TB)
??? IoSafe Solo G3 (1 TB)
?? more

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ziffdavis/pcmag/~3/9fYxThgCjL4/0,2817,2406513,00.asp

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The Obamacare decision as the ?Compromise of 2012?? ? let?s hope not (Powerlineblog)

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ICC staffers held in Libya released, fly to Italy

Australian lawyer Melinda Taylor, third from left, prepares to board a plane to Rotterdam after disembarking from Tripoli at Rome's Ciampino military airport after being released from Libya, Monday, July 2, 2012. Taylor is one of the four International Criminal Court staffers who had been held for nearly four weeks on allegations that they shared documents that could harm national security with Moammar Gadhafi's imprisoned son Seif al-Islam Gadhafi. (AP Photo/Riccardo De Luca)

Australian lawyer Melinda Taylor, third from left, prepares to board a plane to Rotterdam after disembarking from Tripoli at Rome's Ciampino military airport after being released from Libya, Monday, July 2, 2012. Taylor is one of the four International Criminal Court staffers who had been held for nearly four weeks on allegations that they shared documents that could harm national security with Moammar Gadhafi's imprisoned son Seif al-Islam Gadhafi. (AP Photo/Riccardo De Luca)

Australian lawyer Melinda Taylor, third from left, holding a white bag, prepares to board a plane to Rotterdam after disembarking from Tripoli at Rome's Ciampino military airport after being released from Libya, Monday, July 2, 2012. Taylor is one of the four International Criminal Court staffers who had been held for nearly four weeks on allegations that they shared documents that could harm national security with Moammar Gadhafi's imprisoned son Seif al-Islam Gadhafi. (AP Photo/Riccardo De Luca)

Australian lawyer Melinda Taylor, second from left, and President of the International Criminal Court (ICC) Sang-Hyun Song, of South Korea, prepare to board a plane to Rotterdam after disembarking from Tripoli at Rome's Ciampino military airport after being released from Libya, Monday, July 2, 2012. Taylor is one of the four International Criminal Court staffers who had been held for nearly four weeks on allegations that they shared documents that could harm national security with Moammar Gadhafi's imprisoned son Seif al-Islam Gadhafi. (AP Photo/Riccardo De Luca)

ZINTAN, Libya (AP) ? Libya released on Monday four International Criminal Court staffers who had been held for nearly four weeks on allegations that they shared documents that could harm national security with Moammar Gadhafi's imprisoned son Seif al-Islam Gadhafi.

As they were released, ICC President Sang-Hyun Song, a South Korean judge, apologized to the Libyan government and people for the incident and promised an investigation into the allegations. Song flew to Libya for the handover.

"The ICC is grateful to the Libyan authorities for their agreement today to release the Court's staff members so that they can be reunited with their families," Song said as the four were released.

A special flight arranged by the Italian government and carrying Song and the staffers landed at Rome's Ciampino airport late Monday. The staffers and Song took off for Rotterdam a few minutes later.

The staffers did not speak to the media.

"Well, I'm very happy to bring them all back to freedom," the court president told reporters.

"The Libyan government gave me their version of the investigation. We will do our own separately, so the results will be known after some weeks," Song added.

Seif al-Islam was the most senior member of the ousted Gadhafi regime to be captured in last year's civil war. Long viewed as a likely heir-apparent to his father, he faces charges by the ICC of crimes against humanity. He was captured by a militia in western Libya after his father was taken captive and then killed last October following more than 40 years as Libya's eccentric, authoritarian ruler.

Libya's new leadership accused Seif al-Islam of torturing and killing rebels, as well as other crimes.

His trial has been at the heart of a dispute between the ICC and the Libyan government. Libyan authorities have challenged the ICC's right to try Seif al-Islam, saying the international court is a tribunal of last resort, intended to try suspects from countries that cannot or will not prosecute them.

The court had expressed concern that Libya's judiciary is not yet ready to give Seif al-Islam a fair trial. The ICC judges ruled on June 1 that Libya doesn't have to hand over Seif al-Islam at least until a ruling on Tripoli's challenge.

Richard Dicker, international justice program director at Human Rights Watch, said the release of the ICC employees was "overdue," and that if Libya had any concern over their conduct, it should have submitted a complaint to the ICC.

"It is unacceptable that the ICC staff would be held for nearly a month when Libya had no right to do so," he said in an email to The Associated Press.

Amnesty International echoed the same sentiment and urged the ICC to investigate the legality of the detention and the allegations made by the Libyan authorities. It also questioned Tripoli's readiness to offer Gadhafi's son a fair trial.

"Not only has it denied them (the ICC staffers) their liberty and stopped them from performing their functions, but it has also undermined Seif al-Islam Gadhafi's right to an effective defense and delayed the ICC's decision on the Libyan authorities' recent application to bring him to trial in Libyan courts," said Amnesty International's Marek Marczynski.

He urged the ICC to review the impact of the detention and take measures to ensure Gadhafi's defense team has time to prepare their case.

The Libyan lawyer who represents Tripoli's interests at the ICC, Ahmed Al-Jehani, said the mission staffers were released because they have diplomatic immunity.

Libyan authorities say they placed Australian defense attorney Melinda Taylor and her Lebanese translator under house arrest after they visited Seif al-Islam in prison in the western town of Zintan and allegedly shared documents that could harm the country's national security. Seif al-Islam was captured by Zintani rebels late last year and has been held there ever since.

Al-Jehani said state prosecutors accused Taylor of having Seif al-Islam sign three blank pieces of paper, but they could not press charges because she has diplomatic immunity. Al-Jehani said Libyan authorities do not know why she wanted his signature.

Libyan Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed Aziz said the staffers, which also include a Russia national and a Spanish national, will leave to Tripoli and then Italy later in the day.

Al-Jehani, who is also the Libyan prosecutor leading the case against Gadhafi's son, said they were in good health. He said the case has now been closed in Libya and the staffers will not return.

"Definitely they are free and they will not be coming back to Libya," he said.

Al-Jehani said the detention of the ICC staff has further complicated relations with Libya.

"The relationship has become more difficult and more unstable," he said, adding that Libya would likely press ahead with its case against Seif al-Islam after the country's first nationwide elections this week to choose a parliament.

___

Associated Press writers Aya Batrawy in Cairo, Frances D'Emilio and Pietro De Cristofaro in Rome and Mike Corder in The Hague, Netherlands, contributed to this report.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/cae69a7523db45408eeb2b3a98c0c9c5/Article_2012-07-02-Libya-ICC/id-699d7ff962b744499329c373da4a77b1

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Over 2.1 million still without power from Illinois to Virginia

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Sorry, Charlie? (talking-points-memo)

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$668000 :: 13282 Boones Ferry LN, Lake Oswego OR, 97035 ...

Posted by admin on Jun 29, 2012 in Blog

4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths
Home size: 3,267 sq ft
Lot Size: 16,988 sq ft
Property Type: DETACHD
MLS Number: 12324936

Walk to LO High School & pool, New Season-Mt. Park shopping center. Very open, spacious rooms, vaulted ceilings, crown moldings, pillars, plantation shutters. Well loved & maintained. Built with quality and care ? super floor plan. Large patio off kit, beautifully landscaped with room for croquet, badminton. Private .39ac in easy close-in location.

Listed with Hasson Company Realtors

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Brought to you by Chris Larsson, Coldwell Banker Seal. Call me today at 503-683-2897!

The content relating to real estate for sale on this web site comes in part from the IDX program of the RMLS? of Portland, Oregon. All real estate listings are marked with the RMLS? logo, and detailed information about these properties includes the names of the listing brokers. Listing content is ? 2009 RMLS?, Portland, Oregon.

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Lake Oswego Map Seach
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So if I know that you know that I know that you know? (Unqualified Offerings)

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Arianna Huffington: Sunday Roundup

This week was all about the Supreme Court -- and the suddenly surprising John Roberts. First, the Chief Justice guided the court through a split-the-baby decision on Arizona's immigration law, allowing the noxious "show-your-papers" provision to stand while striking down three others. (Splitting the baby was very much in vogue: see News Corp.) Then came the landmark health care ruling in which Roberts, perhaps mindful of a recent poll showing three-quarters of Americans think he and his fellow justices allow political views to influence their decisions, found a narrow way to uphold Obamacare -- a move that left many conservatives fuming, caused Justice Kennedy to accuse Roberts of "vast judicial overreaching," and prompted Albert Brooks to tweet: "It's a terrific day in America. I'm gonna go out and get wildly sick." Much closer to home, we mourned the passing -- and celebrated the life -- of Nora Ephron (see here, here, here, here, here -- and read Nora's HuffPost posts here).

Add your voice to the conversation on Twitter: twitter.com/ariannahuff

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